The proof you seek by "testing" Ellis', or any system in play doesn't exist because in practice there is NO CERTAINTY. Each and every statistics mathematician recognizes that in practice things happen within a specific range of outcomes a specific part of the time. (The actual terminology is 'an event is expected to occur within a confidence interval from some y to some z, with a probability of x% of the trials'. The broader the interval, range, the "more certain" we can be any of the events will land between y and z, however defined for each type of event.) In other words, with all their training combined, all any one of them can conclude is that nothing physical happens until it happens. (Now you're thinking, what about death and taxes? Metaphysically, have you ever died? Physically, doesn't everyone live on in some way themselves, or through others' genes and thoughts? Spiritually?) Suffice it to say, no matter the level of success/failure of an unaccounted-for system of play, you will ALWAYS doubt/wonder "does it really work". Only when THEORY (, or biology above,) is matched up with practice can we begin to talk about certainty, as opposed to the subjectivity of is something "certain enough" for me/you/whomever. (And a casino isn't the place to be thinking subjectively.)
More to the pt here, we're talking about a casino game: a collection of probabilities based on the rules of the game, there being NO OTHER theoretical operable elements, except possibly the number of decks in play. There are no "morning or afternoon" cards (which even were less-than-random wouldn't necessarily produce streaky baccarat, etc, outcomes), the cards are shuffled "to death", WELL beyond any card-tracking main-frame computers. Ellis, what's a standard shuffle, how many times do the casinos do it, how many times must it be done to prevent card-tracking, and how are "morning and afternoon" cards done? The rules, etc, of baccarat seek out random results even from a less-than-shuffled deck. Does any one think the casinos got where THEY are by Ellis-speak while Ellis is still betting "quarters" (like most of us?) (He believes the house-edge to be at 25%(?), and hence his implied(?) system-advantage when reversed on the casinos. A $5 bettor would expect to lose, on average, $1.25 a game, almost $100 for EACH shoe!) The casinos use the only possible tool available to them... probabilities of possible outcomes.
"Seeing is believing", eg, when most of us turn on the tv: who really knows how all that stuff works, but it does. There's a lot more than probability to that, but it ultimately can be accounted for by (quantum-field) probabilities. Ellis, or any one else can have available only the probabilities from any casino game. Yet he appears to be functionally illiterate, even dull, in those matters. Conversely, if Ellis' methods actually worked (, like tv's,) wouldn't we be applying it to bj, or football, outcomes; or building bridges that "just seem to keep on standing"? (To bj in the sense of his baccarat pattern-methods telling the bj player when to bet big. Why doesn't HE add that system-info to his other blackjack methods? Baccarat is a "safe game" with yet no real competition for the frauds... he figured why not invent an easy-but-silly-enough system suckers can immediately use and fall in love, ie, the "free stuff". There's only three "pro" bj customers? The struggling card-counter competition is doing better than any by Ellis' DISASTROUS bj methods which skip the basic strategy. Perhaps his three students "see clumping of the tens" because there's naturally MORE of them? Superstition, as it always has, eventually gives way to science and truer forms of religion. (I never said there wasn't a God, only that science should be used to find it, if one must. But even superstition is a starting point.)
Can we discern PHYSICALLY meaningful, qualitative and quantitative, BIASES in egs, the way the game is delivered by the casino, or in the pattern of outcomes?? Possibly, but those SPECIFICALLY-IDENTIFIED and SHOWN-TO-EXIST mechanisms would REDUCE DIRECTLY to their OWN probabilities. (The casinos don't connect shufflers to "special radios" to otherwise show us are the cards right.) Ellis employs the old "holy water" scam whereby it's special water but which is not susceptible to mortal testing. No thing which exists is ineffable (, completely unexplainable,) it has to be put together some how. And i severely doubt Ellis' claim his new SAP system is "harder to stumble on than fussion" (, as he spells it,) which would then be truly beyond most of us.
Wrt Ellis' further implied challenges to me, and others: dares. Why would i bother to pit my system against his even by an exhaustive computer-simulation when i have already won my challenge to him: he has no probabilities of anything to support his stellar claims. And why for heaven's sake hasn't he already verified his own system by credible 3rd- party simulation, using actual casino shoes, if that's what he relies on, before the hoopla? And i know NOTHING else of him, except he seems a pretty unhappy camper: he closed the thread, deleted my only other post (leading out of his site, and barred even the baccaratforums.com name altogether), and he literally goes around in circles. Is he that afraid of any competition? Following through with whoever he is would be like sending Moses $500+ to put out his own "burning bush". Why does Ellis go through the bother for $500 here and $500 there if he wants to be such a big helper, and is making so much money at the casinos, with his quick-and-easy ("leave-no-one-behind") systems? Scammers go for everything while delivering nothing, feed off the belief money can buy anything, even change the laws of nature against "those darn casinos". And are we to buy a system from every one who says, "I don't know exactly why it works, but it does work"? Those contradict each other? Twenty(?) years ago i bought champion BRUNSON's 500-pg hard-cover poker Super/System for $100, a classic. Poker has been documented to be a game of skill. Why not be skeptical of paying $500 for an unpublished "manual" from someone with only a few fantastical hearsay "stories"? Ellis has produce ZERO millionaires.
There are just a few unfavorable, and no favorable, notes about Ellis on the web; and a lot of published books denying ANY possible such counter-system for casino baccarat. Again certainly cause for skepticism? Why are there 1400 site members but only 80 buyers, and after 20 years? His "Autobiography of CED" is a piece of work. Anyone who believes the career-move juxtapositions, or falls for the blathering tall-tale "magic acts", which are surely lies, has to have an I.Q. lower than his. Eg, NO ONE won every day for 3 years at any casino, as he claims he did, nor ever will. (I've been around a bit, never heard of S.U.N.Y nor of anyone trying to get in, though i don't doubt it exists. But there's no one else with real credentials at a young age who's even considered switching to where he is now. If he gave his actual alma mater i could check the records; nor does he say which type of IQ test he took, which one who took one would think to do.) All my posts there were removed the moment 'I' started laying out HIS case for him, like others before me. How many of his small band shared the same fate? (I guess that's the way a CULT works, though i've been holding off on that word to not come off as too much of an "alarmist" because of him.) Still, i feel sorry for the suckers throwing their last $500 at him for another year's worth of headaches "winning every time". Nor does Ellis SPELL OUT his guarantee anywhere ,eg, which edge over the house when?. How to prove TO HIM his systems fail when he accepts NO test conditions? Why not allow payment if it "seems" to work LONG-TERM, and for continued access to his private forum (to keep it working by the "ever-reasoning" Ellis) if a refund's on the honor-system. Wouldn't that be easier for the customer AND ELLIS' untested works, than the uneasy $500-refund spot 6 months later? Anyone who pays $500 for NOTHING up front is also going to "believe" it's working. But nor have the paid members been polled. It's SUPERSTITION i read from his ACTUAL public forum member's mail to myself claiming they're ready to pay because, "I don't know what you're saying (here), but i know whichever system you're using you just have to believe in it, and stick with it". Some posts from full members say things like, "as long as we're thorough and don't make mistakes", "we have a number of systems depending on the situation", "have to select the right table", or "the systems work until the casinos re-orchestrate the cards". How desperate and lazy can people get to "want to believe" ILLOGICAL excuses? (It's ONE MECHANICAL system the casinos couldn't care less about because, beyond Ellis' "delusions of (private-forum) grandeur", virtually all players have their OWN system(s); and banker bets usually even player, so the casino CAN'T get more than the "vig" no matter the cards. It would take more complicated shufflers than we SEE to quickly scan to sort 8-decks apart by radio command to a computer program within. (A lot of passes to make up a shoe.) I can't imagine companies making such, nor casinos buying those for fear of getting their licences yanked... too many casino employees. Is the "self-shuffling SHOE excuse" next why Ellis' system won't win tomorrow? Were i paranoid, i would employ a less predictable and mechanical approach: PLAY OPPOSITE TO THE MAJORITY OF BETTORS. One more thing about the "orchestrated" cards: i defy anyone on to arrange 8 decks to produce a particular result which will maintain it any more than the frequency expected by random chance under a legal cut, and subsequent burn card(s). (Ellis said to explain would be helping the casinos. How, if they already know it?) Regardless, to determine the optimal patterns to obtain an edge beyond the "vig" given the betting patterns of ALL its customers, and then to successfully apply that is fantasy. Who/what collects/analyzes all that data? And, of course, why create more of the obvious patterns in a game where part of EVERYONE'S system is to utilize the patterns? Why cheat when already winning at the psychologically-optimal rate for gambling addiction? Now go back a few years to where Ellis' site started, look at the early posters. Many posted regularly for up to a year, then abruptly stopped. Why? As for those members of "his close group", well they're likely still "wondering" when SAP will start working as for the few who repeatedly post all-powerful anecdotes, or are waiting for his next "better-than-best" system, or have just moved on. Friends of friends of the losers can be found everywhere to denounce such systems; while the short-term winners ALWAYS personally let it be known right away. Ellis, himself, has been "moving on" with system after system, each with its new lingo and promise? Don't each of his systems contradict the other in a lot of spots in application? Lastly, how to know which other posts as mine were just deleted, or which posts are just made up (by Ellis)?
Look at Ellis' "logic" more closely, eg, "when the cards are random, expect to win every other game, therefore bet a progression and hope to catch a win". When its random, expect NOTHING, save your big bet for when you KNOW what's coming. Wrt his big "net betting" idea, to play his sysyem both ways (against itself (?)) by additively averaging out its bets: how does it bet, or then risk, less because that average can be lower or HIGHER than betting it one way; or pay less commission if it doesn't bet less? "Net betting" just averages out the betting on either side, a concealed way of HIGHER "flat betting", which maximizes a sucker's chance to win for a while, long enough to pay the $500. (Most don't realize that 90% of the time, a new player/system will at some point be ahead even after dipping substantially; but at some later point, the player/system will sink TOO far down to ever again break even. Ellis, like the casinos trying to addict customers, figured that out.) Why not bet the one side which is going to win? Sounds like a net waste of your life and money to just go ahead and pursue that full-time. Even wrt to his "0-bet', for bet-progressing expect all the wins and losses for each bet-level to average out (, in theory, randomly,) according to the adv/disadv wrt the house. That means "0-betting" is the SAME as playing (, working actually,) but w/o the gains/losses. Why "win the big bets, and lose the little bets" if you can win both? The patterns don't go away, so then why would the bet, given a real pattern method? Why not cut your standard bet in half, when your system isn't giving you a good read, you're winning/losing too fast, or you see some thing experimental happening... at least you'll still be in the game w/o wasting more of your time; or why not walk away from a bad shoe/table to another?? Lastly, if there were something to be had from pattern-methods, wouldn't there be more value faster from looking at different types of patterns than trying to suck the last drop out of the same old P-B one?
With crazy-idea scams there are often a few good grains of truth. Wrt "net betting", if all the players at the baccarat table took off all the overlapping bets (of player and banker,) played the game, divvied up the overlap accordingly to the outcome, then the commission on half the overlap would be spared, to be split among the players. (The casino would still win, but the commission would be somewhat cut for the players. And even doing that isn't really gaining ground because, according to game thoery, any field of opponents plays optimally individually if and only if also as a group... so it's more about not giving up ground in the first place. And playing 2 OR MORE spots, as Ellis' "net betting", can't bet, risk, more than playing one because the HEDGED overlap is just taken off the table. Ellis, himself, would have to "orchestrate" the very-unlikely cards for his two spots to "both" win, one on P while the other on B, their bigger bets.) Wrt his wrong definition of 'random' there is the hint of the best (real) strategy i have seen to beat the casino which flows more from Ellis's forum joke about finding the worst system, then turning it around. I think if you REALLY, not just trivially, turn around Ellis' system, now perhaps a winner! (I agree with Ellis' take on card-counting in bj, up to a pt, but does that necessarily make either of us right wrt baccarat play? No.)
The one thing Ellis did prove, rather quickly and ironically, was HIMSELF: Ellis is just the one-eyed king in HIS land of the blind, telling big ones to get you to close yours.
UPDATE: Ellis at Beat the Casino Forums just BANNED garnabby and deleted his few posts/replies while re-editing around those. Well, i must have been bad for his "business". So i tried again...
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STILL Considering an E.Clifton Davis system?
There's a lot of these visitor-mail posts at Beat the Casino, from confused PAID members. This is actually one of the first paid-member visible mails i looked at. Here it is copied and pasted, less some site filler to make it fit here: (Just think, for $500+ anyone may join the "party". Got banned again for posting this over there. It was up for 2 days during which only two non-organizational persons posted in defence to say one of Ellis' systems worked the night before, and (Ellis, himself?) to say Ellis is okay. The only rated thread i've seen there, it had over 600 hits before he deleted it.) This mail is from paid-members Bud and justtryingtomakeit to skpeters (Steve).
skpeters
Universal Bac Player
Showing Visitor Messages 1 to 2 of 2
03-03-2009 08:29 PM - permalink
Bud
Hello there. How many more flavors do you think we need lol
justtryingtomakeit
Steve,
Sorry for taking so long to respond, but YES, the method that I play is still working, but it doesn't have a ridiculous profit margin per shoe (like 15 units per shoe. It's more like 5 to 7 now). It's not easy, and it's definitely frustrating at times when things aren't going smooth straight out of the gate. But, I guess that's the name of the game. Now, what I find crazy is, since I've been a member, I haven't heard about one system that seemed to work consistently for everyone that is using it correctly. I was under the impression that, that was what I was purchasing. Not something that I would have to tweek myself. And I take it that you are still having problems yourself? Please correct me if I am wrong.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regarding Ellis' group trip report to Vegas this February,
an outsider local to Vegas, TheNatural9 Posted: 22-Feb-09 19:04
I wasn’t going to comment on his trip on any of the gambling boards but after reading the trip report at beat the casinos, I felt like I had to.
I attended the trip, incognito. None of his followers, nor Ellis know me so I was able to observe from a slight distance without being know to any of them.
To begin with, on Friday night, all they played at the gold coast was one shoe. No table selection, just plopped down at a $25 min table that had 6 or 7 spots open. Nobody played SAP – Ellises highly touted high player advantage system. In fact what I did observe every one of them playing was – are you ready for this? – time before last. Yes, they all spent $500 for a several hundred years old system. They used a 1,1,2 up on a loss bet progression. Not even using his brilliant net betting system.
I skipped the next day but did go back to the gold coast the next day. There were 5 of them playing. This time I observed 3 shoes. In the first one I watched, they played what I later learned was the Matrix. Something similar to twister. The next 2 shoes I watched were both time before the last, with the same 1,1,2 porg. I watched them play $25 units. By my count, they each won about 9 units for the 3 shoes they played.
After Ellis and several of them left, I watched as two other players in his group played another shoe. Again, one of them played time before last. Don’t know what the other played because I was watching the one player. He got up to +8 3 times then lost 4 units and colored up +4. Again $25 units. The other player lost.
I then engaged them in some talk. Giving a false name, they admitted to me that hardly any of ellises players uses SAP because it is too hard to use in a casino. Also told me that ellis wont use it himself because it is too tiring. I have it and have played it in casinos and found it to be pretty easy to use but it does NOT produce anywhere his stated 20% + player advasntage.
Overall, I watched them win a total of about $500 combined for the 5 shoes I watched them play total.
Guys, save your money, it just isn’t worth it.
As for the $500 units, I didn’t watch anybody play more than $25 units but then I didn’t go to any other casinos to watch them than the gold coast. 9
I posted,
I read a bit of the trip report. Looks like only 15 showed, (how many live in/near Vegas?), and most went home after a day or two. Could it be, does anyone think, BECAUSE THEY LOST? You NEVER hear from the losers, they just go away. Ellis told me, before he banned me, his Suzzane won $1500 at the $10 bj game. Of course i don't believe it, but what are these "high-roller master gamesters on a "summit" ,no less, doing playing the $10 (or $25) tables? Couldn't they find any $5 tables?????????
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For one final question for the three stooges: Ellis, Keith, and aegis...
Here's an excerpt from BTC, 19 Apr 09:
baccatit wrote,
Just play opposite the others if the casino is cheating... instead of getting "compliated"?
bacpilot repied,
Re: Just play opposite the others if the casino is cheating... instead of getting "compliated"?
This is simple brilliance.......
Keith Smith replied,
The saying from other players who have known this is Play the
same with those who are winning and opposite those who are
losing. Change as necessary. I think its a viable strategy
E. Clifton Davis replied,
I see em try that every time I play. But I never saw anybody
win that way.
That's what they all do but the casino retains 26% of the
drop. Those are the guys that make Baccarat the #1 profit
maker for the casino. It used to be BJ at 15%. But now its
Baccarat at 26%. The problem with playing against a loser is
that it tends to make him change his ways. Also its VERY
common for a player to go down and then come back up. Now he
wins and YOU lose.
If the method you propose worked, the casinos would have gone
broke on Baccarat a long time ago. BUT instead, their profits
went from 3% in the late 80's to 26% today because of players
doing exactly what you propose.
It just ain't that easy.
baccatit replied,
bacpilot,
I'm happy to see at least one person got the point.
Whether the casino alters the cards by "washing" and/or
shuffling, and did that have any effect on the 'PB...'
outcomes, they wouldn't be doing it to lose.
Just playing the opposite the others provides an immediate
heads up to that (if actually occurring) instead of waiting
for the cheating patterns to show up in which case any one can
see the new pattern provided it's not later re-altered by the
casino again. (Waiters are losers then.)
So... play opposite the others just in case the casino is
cheating; and if they're not cheating, then that style of play
has no more/less to win/lose because the outcomes would then
be truly random, for which Davis claims there is no baccarat
strategy anyway.
(BTW what happened to that post by Julian(?) where Davis says
to "wash the cards with your finger tips but not your palms"?
Classic.)
Ellis,
I thought about that 26% some more.
If playing against the other players, doesn't that make me the
house... and that 26% mine?
Why second guess the house or the other players along the
way... why not just keep that 26% coming???? Then the house
gets nothing, not even the vig!!!!
(And even if there is no 26%, then the house would be limited
to the vig.)
aegis21 replied,
ok, I am truly glad you are happy, that alone made this worth
posting! LOL
Now, let me get this straight, you bet against the other
players. So If we all did that who would we bet against,
ourselves? I alwyas thought that it would be easiest to come
up with the worst system in bac and then simply bet against
it! Why doesn't anyone do that? There are MANY losing systems
on other sites, just get them and bet the opposite and you
have a garunteed winner! I hope this isn't above or below you,
but you get it.
Thanks for giving me something to do today and smile while I'm
doing it! Big smile, big smile!
baccatit replied,
aegis,
I guess that's how Ellis ended up with his "netbetting"... by
second guessing (himself).
E. Clifton Davis replied,
Hey quit yappin and try it. Lot's of others have. Put your
money where your mouth is. Some people can only learn the hard
way.
Two minutes later, E. Clifton Davis replied again,
Hey John, is this a new guy or that same idiot again? He said
he played that way too. But it ended up he worked for the
casino.
Baccatit replied,
Yes Ellis,
Everyone else must be the same guy: I'm bacpilot, Archer, the
casino, garnabby, and everyone else all over the net. However,
it seems more likely to all of us from everywhere else at
least that you, aegis, Keith, Suzanne, and wolfat are "one".
There's no point in any more challenges, right? And i doubt
you have any money left anyway.
Asfaras the 26%... well, were that publically
visible/inferrable from any casino's revenue records, it would
be shut down (to prevent a "blackeye" to the industry in
general. The rich do go after the rich then.)
Gablaw replied,
Hey, Baccatit, I've met 3 of the 5 you rolled into one. If
you're right, they've got multiple personalities down pat--or
I'm delusional!
Btw, a very provocative handle.
baccatit replied,
gablaw,
I said are "one", in the sense of the BTC organization.
Please be more careful with your readings. (Anyway, do you
really think i was being literal? You're trying too hard.
Why?)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As soon as Ellis writes "John" instead of aegis, you know the gig is just about up, and so another ("legal", and informative) thread deleted by BTC.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In late April, '09, Ellis took the rest of his (Beat the Casino Forums) site down from the public too late... there's no garbage left to reveal there. Looks like the price has gone up while the junk remains the same.
The site now begins with:
Hello, I have decided to make BeatTheCasino.com by invitation only. Our exclusive Baccarat and Blackjack forum, that has some of the best players in the world as members, it is $1000.00 a year for membership. If you are interested use the contact us forms.
If you want to plug your site, someone elses site or anything else use the Casino Ads Forum or the Beatthecasino.com links. If you want to talk poker use those forums as you see fit. It's Free to register to do this so go ahead if you would like to.
If you want to argue about Baccarat or Blackjack and who knows what go elsewhere. We are real players and have no time to waste arguing with you. It's easier to play and develop better strategies from real players and real casinos. Regards BTC
-------------------------------------------------------------
Seems old Ellis has returned from hiding. Guess he's getting really hard-up now. Here's a couple of posts from the Gamblers' Glen:
smith123 Posted: 10-Jun-09 05:38
E. Clifton Davis of beatthecasino fame has come up with a system called OT14 for Baccarat. As per the web site one player made 97 green units in 6 shoes. The membership costs $500. Anybody here know anything about this new system?
GARNABBY Posted: 10-Jun-09 09:49
Has Ellis "come out of hiding again"?
The only thing believable about Smith's little "hook" story is that Ellis came up with yet another piece of junk to sell (for the others to work out for themselves).
Only one winner this time?. Used to be everyone won all the time. (I guess all the lying there got too far out of hand for even the "believers", eh?)
And what's wrong now Mrs Smith? The "well" running so dry over there APPARENTLY he has to send you to the GG of all places, after that beating he took here last time?
P.S. Mrs. Smith, which "major" school was it Ellis attended? Like every other question he made a joke out of, i'm still waiting for an answer.
[Edited by GARNABBY on 10-Jun-09 16:38]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yet again HERE'S another set of "bizarre" exchanges with Ellis, this time after he and his message-board administrator INVITED ME BACK...
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#1 08-18-2009, 09:02 PM
garnabby
BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
Age: 48
Posts: 164
Banned again, part 1...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wow, Ellis opened up his forum to my IP-address again after a "lifetime" ban on it, (and "someone's" posted threats of legal action against myself should i continue posting at BTC.) Of course i re-registered as "garnabby" not to appear evasive. Here's the "exchange" copied & pasted best as i could keep up, given the constant shuffling of posts over there. I wonder... did he take another whole thread down over there?
First, the invitation:
"Dear garnabby,
Thank you for registering at the Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are". Before we can activate your account one last step must be taken to complete your registration.
Please note - you must complete this last step to become a registered member. You will only need to visit this URL once to activate your account.
To complete your registration, please visit this URL:
http://www.beatthecasino.com/bb/register.php?a=act&u=2586&i=d02917b30233ff16a57d77 664490d503453e02c1
<a href="http://www.beatthecasino.com/bb/register.php?a=act&u=2586&i=d02917b30233ff16a57d77 664490d503453e02c1">America Online Users Please Visit Here to be Activated</a>
**** Does The Above URL Not Work? ****
If the above URL does not work, please use your Web browser to go to:
http://www.beatthecasino.com/bb/register.php?a=ver
Please be sure not to add extra spaces. You will need to type in your username and activation number on the page that appears when you visit the URL.
Your Username is: garnabby
Your Activation ID is: d02917b30233ff16a57d77664490d503453e02c1
If you are still having problems signing up please contact a member of our support staff at keith@beatthecasino.com
All the best,
Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are"
To stop receiving this email, please visit this URL:
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08-15-2009, 05:43 AM #1 (permalink) giselle knowles
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Casino orcastration is a Mith
Theres no such thing as casino orchestration in the baccarat game,when i say this i mean in shuffling, sure theres casino orc in things like comps and all the nice dealers and pit bosses who want to keep you at the table as long as possible,the fact you can eat and drink at the table is proof enough, fact is the longer you sit there the happier the casinos are....
As far as the casino orc Mith in shuffling is concerned it was never proven, theres a few that say why did the casinos take rise over the yrs ,like all conspiracy Theorists they always start there sentence with a question...
The casino take went up over the yrs because of many reasons but the way the cards where shuffled was not one of them, the answer lies in the players themselves.
08-17-2009, 07:01 AM #2 (permalink) E. Clifton Davis
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Re: Casino orcastration is a Mith
Right and the Vegas casino Baccarat table take rate went from a published 3% to a published 26% because the players got 900% worse. I'm beginning to think you work for the casinos. Hell you can't even spell orchestration or myth. Keep believing that. No wonder you are losing. You seem to have it confused with castration. Maybe you've got a fixation.
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Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 08-17-2009 at 07:04 AM.
08-17-2009, 04:13 PM #3 (permalink) giselle knowles
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Re: Casino orcastration is a Mith
Wynn's abnormal lucky streak baffles analysts - MarketWatch
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/25/bu...pagewanted=all
http://www.lvrj.com/news/35952509.html
http://www.gamblingcompliance.com/node/23998
http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache...&ct=clnk&gl=uk
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009...ch-hard-times/
from just these few articles on baccarat table take rate shows there is many factors that are taken into account,and these rates vary from casino to casino and from year to year, isnt learning great !!!
08-18-2009, 09:40 AM #4 (permalink) E. Clifton Davis
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Re: Casino orcastration is a Mith
I read the Wynn article when it first came out. I don't know why you would post it. It goes a long way to prove my point and discredit yours. Of course if you have a closed mind you can make anything prove anything in your head.
Anyone who has played as long as I have knows casino orchestration is alive and well. If it weren't the casinos would have gone broke a long time ago.
In Baccarat the 20 in a rows we used to see daily have completely disappeared. Even 12 and 15 in a rows are not nearly as common as they used to be. I've had two 20 in a rows in the same shoe.
But casinos realize that they are only at risk in long runs. So they eliminated them and thus eliminated their main source of risk.
In BJ we caught them using the Bahama hole card trick many times. (the dealer turns his highest card up instead of his first card) You CAN'T beat such a game. It changes the odds 14% in the casino's favor. The pit boss at Caesars Vegas admitted to it when we caught them red handed. He told us he teaches ALL his dealers to do that. The Casino Mgr. made him give everyone their buy in back.
Today virtually everyone plays Basic Strategy. Thorp proved that B.S. alone has a 6% player advantage. Yet the casinos continue to beat BS to the tune of 15% avg. Some MN Indian casinos were reporting 52% in the local papers. But I caught them red handed short decking. With 20 of us counting 6's out loud, very loud, in a 6 deck game, we got to 30 before the shoe was dealt half way. There's only 24 in the whole shoe, counting the cut off cards.
Then there's slipping the 5, very common in A.C. and the break down trick at Foxwood. Caught red handed. I could go on and on and on all day long.
In BJ, the odds of ten 10's in a row out of the shoe are 4/13 to the 10th power. The odds against 10 tens are far far greater than the odds of 10 Banks in Bac. Yet we see it every day we play BJ. It has the exact same effect of short decking ten tens. If 6 decks is short decked just one ten, you'll lose. Yet ten tens in BJ doesn't even raise an eyebrow, they are so used to it. We not only know that they do it, we know exactly HOW they do it.
NBJ uses casino orchestration to its advantage. It DOES win at a rate of 6%. Some expert NBJ players report as high as 15%. This would be impossible W/O casino orchestration.
If the shuffle makes no difference (no orchestration) why don't all casinos simply use the same shuffle??? for Bac and BJ? Why don't they all use the same machines??? the same machine settings??? Answer: because it DOES make a difference and a huge one. They use whatever gives them the best bottom line. They call that legal. I call it orchestration. Try it in a Saturday night poker game! You'll find out real quick.
In BJ, why doesn't Vegas simply deal the first dealer card up like AC does. It would make the game go a lot faster. But see, then they couldn't do the Bahama hole card trick.
In spite of tons of first hand red handed evidence, you want to deny what IS and live in some pretend make believe world. What's worse is you continue to gamble on your beliefs and lose. That is your perrogative.
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Last edited by Keith Smith; 08-18-2009 at 10:50 AM.
08-18-2009, 11:46 AM #5 (permalink) garnabby
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Re: Casino orcastration is a Mith
Ellis wrote, "You have managed to fill up our entire public index with completely non essential minertia." Ellis, did you mean (non-essential) 'minutia(e)'?
Ellis wrote, "What's worse is you continue to gamble on your beliefs and lose. That is your perrogative." No, that's her (GK's) 'prerogative'.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
At least GK was able to pronounce her misspellings, if indeed (, as i suspect,) hers were not only in jest to your strange mispronuciations, let alone your own seemingly-endless misspellings.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Thorp proved that B.S. alone has a 6% player advantage." That would be a different sort of "B.S." then.
Please refer to ♠Blackjack House Edge Calculator - The Wizard of Odds for the exact house-edges given those house-specific rules; assuming of course the then-propperly adjusted basic strategies.
I believe its about 0.6% for the house in an average 8-deck (bj) game. You have the "6" right though.
(Sorry for "all the punctuation" but concise, etc, writing demands it.)
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Last edited by garnabby; 08-18-2009 at 09:07 PM.
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#2 08-18-2009, 09:05 PM
garnabby
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Re: Banned again, part 2...
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08-18-2009, 12:22 PM #6 (permalink) Sucias
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Re: Casino orcastration is a Mith
Seems to me, Mr. Davis, your only error is with the euphemism, "orchestration". Why don't we just cut through the bs, and call a spade a spade: CASINO CHEATING.
lol
Casinos everywhere, including but not limited to Vegas, Atlantic City, Casablanca , Connecticut, Monte Carlo, Bahamas, etc...have been cheating since the day they opened their respective doors.
I don't know why.
Greedy, I guess.
Hell, doesn't the book, "The Godfather", open with a quote from Balzac: "behind every great fortune lies a great crime"?
08-18-2009, 12:33 PM #7 (permalink) Sucias
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Re: Casino orcastration is a Mith
Look at Steve Wynn.
Two of his biggest business deals were with Howard freaking Hughes, and Michael Milken who went to jail for 100 counts of securities fraud in 1989!
I wouldn't play at Golden Nugget, The Mirage, or Bellagio with his mother's money!
Looks like a duck...
08-18-2009, 12:41 PM #8 (permalink) garnabby
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Re: Casino orcastration is a Mith
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sucias
Seems to me, Mr. Davis, your only error is with the euphemism, "orchestration". Why don't we just cut through the bs, and call a spade a spade: CASINO CHEATING.
lol
Casinos everywhere, including but not limited to Vegas, Atlantic City, Casablanca , Connecticut, Monte Carlo, Bahamas, etc...have been cheating since the day they opened their respective doors.
I don't know why.
Greedy, I guess.
Hell, doesn't the book, "The Godfather", open with a quote from Balzac: "behind every great fortune lies a great crime"?
Sucias,
Generalizations.
Specifically, easier said/written than proved. Besides, why the need for any secretive methods even where and when effective, if at all possible?
Casinos, (government, et al,) have no need, or even want, to cheat the losers. Why? If they want to save money, that's the best way.
The times i (and other winners) have been cheated occurred "to my face".
Oh, now i see... you get your proofs from things like "The Godfather".
P.S. Forgot to ask, if the so-called castration isn't a mith then how could (even) the "free stuff" still be any good.
And then perhaps Ellis should be "blamed" for releasing the "new working systems" on any web-site, especially a "private forum" with an open-to-anyone-with-$500 policy.
Thanks again.
Ellis then replied with something about having an IQ of 160 but still not being able to understand a single thing i wrote here. But that if there's anything garnabby's good at, it's the "minutiae". And "hasn't this been enough fun for the day." To which i replied, we'll have to get you up to 240. And i agree with you about the "fun" part.
************************************************
Ellis later replied, after something more from GK,
Dear garnabby,
E. Clifton Davis has just replied to a thread you have subscribed to entitled - Casino orcastration is a Mith - in the Baccarat forum of Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are".
This thread is located at:
http://www.beatthecasino.com/bb/baccarat/5459-casino-orcastration-mith-new-post.html
Here is the message that has just been posted:
***************
Well, casinos are corporations. I was raised in the corporations and I know what they are like. The Mafia is more trust worthy.
I have a lot of casino play under my belt, thousands of shoes both in BJ and Bac. I play what I know from experience works. Not somebody elses opinion of what works. I tried that and found that these Gurus have no idea what they are talking about and don't even play. What I do in a casino works. That is what I teach. Neither of these people have any idea of what I do or what I teach. I couldn't care less about articles written by people who don't play. If players want to make use of my experience I'm glad to have them. If they don't want to I'm glad not to have them.
Sucias, you sound like you've been through the trenches too. These two are both saying the same thing. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if they are the same person. It would't be the first time. It would be the eighth for GarnabY or whatever.
I think we can all agree on the bottom line. Martingales are suicidal. Lets let that be that.
Now I see another one on one of the BJ channels. Recommends playing a Martingale with the count. Ten losses in a row in a plus count happens all the time. He'll find out soon enough.
************************************************** **
There may also be other replies, but you will not receive any more notifications until you visit the forum again.
Here's another from danielsan,
Dear garnabby,
danielsan has just replied to a thread you have subscribed to entitled - Casino orcastration is a Mith - in the Baccarat forum of Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are".
This thread is located at:
http://www.beatthecasino.com/bb/baccarat/5459-casino-orcastration-mith-new-post.html
Here is the message that has just been posted:
***************
---Quote (Originally by garnabby)---
'You have managed to fill up our entire public index with completely non essential minertia." Ellis, did you mean (non-essential) 'minutia(e)'?
"What's worse is you continue to gamble on your beliefs and lose. That is your perrogative." No, that's her 'prerogative'.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
At least GK was able to pronounce her misspellings, if indeed (, as i suspect,) hers were not only in jest to your strange mispronuciations, let alone your own seemingly-endless misspellings.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Thorp proved that B.S. alone has a 6% player advantage." That would be a different sort of "B.S." then.
Please refer to ♠Blackjack House Edge Calculator - The Wizard of Odds (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator-pop.html) for the exact house-edges given those house-specific rules; assuming of course the then-propperly adjusted basic strategies.
I believe its about 0.6% for the house in an average 8-deck (bj) game. You have the "6" right though.
(Sorry for "all the punctuation" but concise, etc, writing demands it.)
---End Quote---
Hey Garnabby,
There is no point in pointing out grammatical errors because I can obviously see your errors flashing at me. English may not be the first language for many people online because, as you can see, this is the World Wide Web, not the English Writing-and-speaking Web. As you may not know, the average English speaking person would fittingly have, shall we say, average grammar. If we were all perfect, then we would all be English Professors.
***************
There may also be other replies, but you will not receive any more notifications until you visit the forum again.
All the best,
Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are"
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Though i didn't get the opportunity to respond to danielsan's "hoity-toity" sublimations... what to say to him anyway, to another one who completely missed the whole point of the thread. (No, the point of that thread isn't "wasting time" on the road to nowhere anyway.)
Like just about every member over there. I guess that's what being in some sort of "cult" is all about. But their numbers seem to be thinning since the last time i logged on there.
And note the note about Keith Smith editing Ellis's post. What's up with that? Ellis finally gone completely-senile? (He used to pass such off as too many "drinks".)
GK, if you're still out there, please keep up the "good work".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last edited by garnabby; 08-18-2009 at 09:13 PM.
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#3 08-19-2009, 12:49 AM
natural9
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Re: Banned again, part 1...
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Has he got a system that works I had a few of them from twister days He had his shill posting he/she won big with them if twister not work then anti-twister would I mean right from the early days those were supposed to work and make money and that is what people bought for their hard earned money
Then he must got complaints so he invented orchestration thing as I remember from those days orchestration wasnt even mentioned until later after alot people had bought the systems
Casino orchestration sounds good because it an us vs them type of thing how dare the big bad casino cheat the little gambler
so he had system specially for the type of wash the cards got there was probably another method for streaky shoes and one for choppy one for both
Then he come up with a club thing for people to seemingly help tweak the methods that were supposed to work in the first place what happened to all the winners from the twister days if anything he certainly is a good salesman and he says he got an iq 160 so he can talk down to peeps if you cant understand it is ok because i can lol
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#4 08-19-2009, 07:23 PM
garnabby
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Re: Banned again, part 1...
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UPDATE......
Okay, i was banned again yesterday evening, and this morning (, except for one computer,) but am now free to post yet again (by both).
I was just over at BTC to thank Keith for the "second" chance.
This is a new development for them, probably for the good. I never decried Ellis for having a special forum for paid members but for intimating he had a consistently-winning system. Maybe they'll spend more time focusing on the former now.
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Last edited by garnabby; 08-19-2009 at 08:15 PM.
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#5 08-20-2009, 09:59 PM
ADulay
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Re: Banned again, part 1...
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garnabby,
Evidently I'm the only guy on all these forums who hasn't been banned somewhere.
I'll read and continue to add to the discussions as needed here and at ProjectB.
AD
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#6 08-21-2009, 08:54 AM
garnabby
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Re: Banned again, part 1...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by ADulay
garnabby,
Evidently I'm the only guy on all these forums who hasn't been banned somewhere.
I'll read and continue to add to the discussions as needed here and at ProjectB.
AD
AD,
I guess it's important to remember that the internet is really just an extension of the telephone... where the "old" laws of harassment, and standards of etiquette (do) carry.
I, myself, have "pushed the envelop" here and there, but mostly in confrontations with site-administrators.
Remember though, "getting banned" from the more well-known sites makes it more difficult to get registered, etc, on others. (And i think there's some sort of "list" out there; and also at least one site catering to only "those banned" who wish to "vent" something about it. Checked out one such site a while back... but sorry, i didn't copy the link. Quite a violent site, in fact.)
P.S. Your contributions in the private forum are always welcome. Thanks.
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#7 09-06-2009, 06:07 AM
thebaccaratkid
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Re: Banned again, part 1...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi there Garnabby GK here, i was also banned last yr around xmas by the Davis clan under this user name thebaccaratkid, archer will remember me im sure...I even managed to get comped by davis into the members section when i first joined but eventually the Davis dribble finally got to me and i blew my cover !!.
Im wearing my visits under GK very thin over there but hopefully ill not get the boot before i can do some more damage..
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#8 09-06-2009, 07:33 PM
garnabby
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Posts: 164
Re: Banned again, part 1...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebaccaratkid
Hi there Garnabby GK here, i was also banned last yr around xmas by the Davis clan under this user name thebaccaratkid, archer will remember me im sure...I even managed to get comped by davis into the members section when i first joined but eventually the Davis dribble finally got to me and i blew my cover !!.
Im wearing my visits under GK very thin over there but hopefully ill not get the boot before i can do some more damage..
thebaccaratkid,
Fooled me, i still hadn't figured who or what "GK" was up to. Also i have been known by a couple of aliases in my brief time on some of these boards... mostly to "test" their software; and at the other end of the spectrum, to have a little harmless "fun".
I know Ellis, and the "gang" are big enough to deal with the latter. And by and large the overwhelming majority of the persons, including those involved with this sort of "monkey business" (, or "baccarat shit" as i sometimes refer to it when it "starts to get away from me"), are honest enough to not make up (too many) things here. But i guess the loyalty which often goes hand in hand with that sometimes gets in the way.
I haven't heard from Archer in a while, but i'm sure he's out there still looking for ways to better his baccarat-play. Most don't know it but he, himself, has quite a backgroung in the game. And he actually seems (to me, from his correspondence to myself,) to see a lot of good qualities in Ellis' work... such as Ellis' dedication to the "art" of the game, and firsthand knowledge of Ellis' persistence playing it.
My biggest "problem" with BTC in the past, anyway, has in my opinion and experience been its censorship of anything threatening to their methods as being infallible. But then of course also the "loyalty" thing going on there once everyone is otherwise "convinced". Regardless, it looks as though the "Ellis era" is perhaps just about over, and that Keith may be trying to re-shape the forum to meet a more realistic club-based goal in the future.
Glad to meet you "on the (only) other side", BK; though i enjoyed your posts over there.
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#9 Today, 11:20 AM
garnabby
BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
Age: 48
Posts: 164
Re: Banned again, part 1...
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Oh well, looks like Looks like Ellis threw away his own second from myself anyway by playing the ban-game again. I guess it's true that some persons just can't help themselves, or be "worked with" to help themselves. I had hoped Keith, after the many "spasms" his forum has endured lately to try to save itself, had finally seen the light. That, eg, our forum here, and most other (successful) boards across the web, get by just fine w/o banning anyone but the (obvious) advertizers, and the completely-unreadable posts (, mostly from his "camp"). I'll be putting my "Beware of Ellis at Beat the Casino Forums" notices back up on every site i run in to. LET'S RUN THE REST OF HIS GARBAGE BACK INTO THE GROUND FOR GOOD, shall i? Perhaps the next message to be reciprocated back Ellis', himself:
vBulletin Message
You have been banned for the following reason:
No reason was specified.
Date the ban will be lifted: Never
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's my "problem-reply" to a few posts there yesterday, but first Ellis's emailed-reply to my own likely-removed-by-now post. (What the heck is he talking about? Certainly not baccarat, or anything baccarat-related.)
Dear garnabby,
E. Clifton Davis has just replied to a thread you have subscribed to entitled - The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!! - in the Baccarat forum of Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are".
This thread is located at:
http://www.beatthecasino.com/bb/baccarat/5481-private-forum-red-hot-right-now-new-post.html
Here is the message that has just been posted:
***************
I just finished explaining why we teach multiple systems to your other half. Why do you consistently ignore facts just as she does?
Why do you push betting on losers just as she does?
Why do you complain about IQs just as she does?
Why do you persist to post off topic on our threads just as she does?
Why do you have such a fettish for losing just as she does?
Why do you ignore remarks from winning players just as she does?
Why do YOU react when I correct HER spelling errors?
When NO ONE ELSE does these things but you two.
When one dissappears, the other always appears immediately like J and H both with the same personality quirck.
IF it looks like ONE duck, quacks like ONE duck........
***************
There may also be other replies, but you will not receive any more notifications until you visit the forum again.
All the best,
Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are"
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!! Quote:
Originally Posted by zebra
The REAL problem with people like Giselle, Archer and others whose names I don't recall, is that they cause Ellis to waste his valuable time (see previous post) answering them. That time could and should be devoted to improving SKOR.
I spent several months in the public forum before getting an opportunity to try the free system. Three shoes in AC made me $700, more than enough for membership, and since then I spend whatever portion of my valuable time I can in the private forum. I wish Ellis had the same opportunity. Keith - we are NOT governed by any mandate of "free speech". I totally agree with Nizmo and acqueen. Potentially productive private members like Sara could by turned off by all this garbage.
(My reply,)
Wow. (And i cleaned up Zebra's post.) But isn't it even more important for the novices to hear the other side(s) of any story, there always being another side? No one knows it all all the time... not even Ellis who has turned out one "best ever" system after another, and will have another next month. And i think it's only fair if i spend the time to learn something from you, you ought to at least spend a little of yours to learn something back from me. Ultimately, aren't we all "internet guys" here?
Second, losing certainly can and does happen by any system of any game... but there are "surprisingly few" actual accounts of any of that (left) on at least this "side of the board" from any sort of member. Why is that? Or more to the point, why then believe any of the more-lengthy "positive" anecdotal testimonials here?
There's nothing very- special or deplorable about private clubs of any sort, which are only meeting places for mutual friends at similar stages in their lives. It's their right however they choose to conduct themselves there... or even here in the so-called public forum, where then the usual rules ought to apply. But just like there are always sometimes losers by any system, there are always consequences for those "freely-chosen" paths of conduct. Not the least of which is perhaps never really discovering the one (best) possibly-consistent winning system, or whichever thing it is being sought, because they failed to truly work together... let alone this particular task already having been "ditched" by many "minds" far greater than Ellis or any of his paid-followers, including the doctors, et al.
Isn't it amazing at just how little interest so many apparently so-abreast of the baccarat-world continue to show all its new developments. It's been said that sometimes the most open-minded persons are really the most closed-minded, but i've never heard that the other way around. I, myself, would have long ago paid much more than a paltry $500 for any system or forum showing at least some such basic consideration in this direction. JUST FOR THE ENTERTAINMENT.
09-07-2009, 11:46 AM #13 (permalink) acqueen
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by E. Clifton Davis
His (Tom) scores were 15,15,12, 10 and +6 on the partial.
He didn't play more because he was there for other reasons.
Now a 100% win rate is quite spectacular in itself as you know, but consider this:
He played 100% mechanically to the 3 rules of SKOR 2Hi.
No judgement calls whatsoever.
His average no of bets per shoe was less than 50.
His avg bet size was about 1 unit.
His highest bet was 2 units.
His commission was negligible.
His Player Avantage was super high double digit.
Now I challenge you to go out and find ANYONE, ANYWHERE that EVER played better than that. EVER!
__________________
This is only my 2nd post, and ironically under the same thread, but I think people should know this:
I play exclusively for my income. I do a few consulting jobs a year in my other line of work to keep my name out there, but that is my supplemental income only.
This investment I made here, to join your forum, has been one of the best investments I have ever made. A trusted financial advisor once told me: "Never hesitate to invest in yourself, be it a full time education or an occasional class." I considered this "an occasional class" when I first signed into it, but now it has blossomed into a full time education. Let me tell you why:
1) I am able to quickly garner new ideas, whether I sit here and read or simply log on, print out a few sample shoes and run.
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#10 Today, 11:22 AM
garnabby
BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
Age: 48
Posts: 164
Re: Banned again, part 1...
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2) I am able to reinforce my playing style by looking at people with "like styles". I studied Tom's shoes and I know WHY he won.. the system was good and he had the discipline to get out AHEAD! Hit and run. Somedays I can sit at a table for hours, knowing conditions are right to make my day's worth or over. Other times I'm searching for quite some time to find the right table, only to sit for a short time, knowing I've gotten the best out of it that I can for the conditions of the day.
Point is, I know how to tell table/casino conditions, I know what to play based on those conditions, and I know when to stay and when to go. And the average joe doesn't realize this point, but the average joe WILL learn this in your course. And that will be the difference between playing for fun and playing to pay your mortgage, which is what I do.
I didn't mean to fan the flames by my earlier post, to the person who posted a negative response, but I DO take it personally when someone says you can't exploit a casino bias! I do it everyday because I've caught on to it and have the tools and THE DISCIPLINE to follow it and turn the casino margin to my favor.
So, thank you, Mr.E. I'd really like the opportunity to sit at a table with you someday. Perhaps I could teach *you* something in exchange for all you've taught me!
09-07-2009, 08:55 AM #12 (permalink) E. Clifton Davis
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
Copied from the NU System thread:
AD, I see you know a thing or two about Baccarat so you'll really appreciate this:
Obviously I can't post his shoes but one of our private members just returned from Vegas yesterday and posted his actual casino cards. He played 4 1/2 shoes (Gold Coast). His (Tom) scores were 15,15,12, 10 and +6 on the partial.
He didn't play more because he was there for other reasons.
Now a 100% win rate is quite spectacular in itself as you know, but consider this:
He played 100% mechanically to the 3 rules of SKOR 2Hi.
No judgement calls whatsoever.
His average no of bets per shoe was less than 50.
His avg bet size was about 1 unit.
His highest bet was 2 units.
His commission was negligible.
His Player Avantage was super high double digit.
Now I challenge you to go out and find ANYONE, ANYWHERE that EVER played better than that. EVER!
I rest my case.
And consider this: He COULD have been playing $5000 units and still have been completely within the table limits.
Yep 58 units in about 250 plays never betting more than 2 units!
That's what a well trained player can accomplish! Tom's been a private member for about a year now and I don't even consider him as one of our best but he started playing immediately after he joined and I don't think he has ever lost. Is that right Tom?
09-05-2009, 02:30 PM #11 (permalink) E. Clifton Davis
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
So, if giselle doesn't mind too much, or even if he or she does, let's get back to Baccarat, namely SKOR 2Hi.
First, giselle has never been on the private forum and has no inkling of what we teach there. We teach multiple table selection systems because there are nine different shoe types. On the public forum we only deal with two types, chop and streak. And many of the public don't even get that much.
But, in addition to better table selection systems we also teach two Universal 2Hi systems on the private forum. SAP and SKOR 2Hi. 2Hi means you never bet more than 2 units. "Universal" means we don't care a hoot about table selection or shuffle type. So why waste time discussing shuffles? SAP has had an excellent win record for three years straight. But it is too complex for some. Players want a system they can learn overnight. Likewise I want a system I can teach to ANYONE overnight. So, I designed SKOR 2Hi. If you can count to 4 you can play SKOR 2Hi. But we never expected such a simple system to do so well.
Everything I and several of the private members have said here on the public forum about SKOR 2Hi is precisely correct. If it weren't other private members would quickly come and contradict us. If you made it thru 4th grade math you KNOW what we are saying. Best system ever!
09-05-2009, 02:21 PM #10 (permalink) zebra
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
The REAL problem with people like Giselle, Archer and others whose names
I don't recall, is that they cause Ellis to waste his valuable time (see previous post) answering them. That time could and should be devoted to improving
SKOR. Members of the private forum are similarly involved with learning and improving what appears to be a truly winning method. We seldom even look here in the public forum anymore, and so are not caught up in Giselle's crap.
I spent several months in the public forum before getting an opportunity to try the free system. Three shoes in AC made me $700, more than enough for membership, and since then I spend whatever portion of my valuable time I can in the private forum. I wish Ellis had the same opportunity. Keith - we are NOT governed by any mandate of "free speech". I totally agree with Nizmo and acqueen. Potentially productive private members like Sara could by turned off by all this garbage. Once a skunk like Giselle has shown his (her?) stripe, it's time to make him (her?) disappear. See you later - I'm going back to the other side where the air is much cleaner.
09-05-2009, 01:41 PM #9 (permalink) E. Clifton Davis
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
Let's set the record straight.
Giselle says shuffles don't matter, only the cut matters. No facts supporting her claim whatsoever. Pure opinion. My biggest problem with this is novices reading this on our site might believe it, much to their detriment.
So lets examine a few facts:
Casinos have spent BILLIONS over the last 20 years perfecting shuffle technique. They did this because multi deck BJ quickly taught them that the shuffle is everything in multi deck. They were rewarded by the fact that casino bottom line in BJ climbed from 6% of the take to 15% as casinos learned more about shuffrle technique and its effect on bottom line.
Most of this profit increase occurred in the late 80's. I know this because as an editor of BJ Confidential at that time we reported the BJ take % for both Vegas and AC every month.
AC was the first to experiment outside of the 8 standard BJ shuffles of that day. Likewise AC reported the first major increases in BJ profits. So Vegas followed suit and their profits rose accordingly.
At that time Baccarat was strictly 8 deck 14 player games and the take retension in Bac was at 3%. We also reported on that. They used the same standard Bac shuffle all over the world. But the AC Casino Mgrs thought well it worked in BJ therefore.... So they abandoned the standard Bac shuffle and went with BJ shuffles which by then ranged in the hundreds. Their profits soared immediately from 3% to 26% for the major Vegas Casinos today - taken from their own profit reports. Recognize that we are talking about a per capita profit. So the number of players has nothing to do with it.
It's easier to see the shuffle effect in Baccarat because during that time right on through until today NOTHING else changed. The rules, the number of decks, the number of cut off cards are all exactly the same today as they were in the late 80s. The shuffle was the ONLY thing to change yet casino profits per player capita increased nearly 900%.
Of course giselle attributes this to casino marketing. Good marketing increases the number of players. It has nothing to do with casino profits per player.
The only thing left is shuffle technique. Or perhaps its all just a big coincidencve. Sure, 900% worth of coincidence!
Or, you could deal a few hands of Baccarat to yourself and disprove all of this. Sure you could. I wonder why the casinos didn't just do that rather than spend billions???
Then there's that crazy thing about IQ. Take a pro football team that suddenly inherits a top league talent. Most of the players, the normal ones, will thank their lucky stars. But there are always a few abnormals who will challenge this talent in spite of all evidence out of insane jealousy. I've run into that sort my whole life. What's one more.
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#11 Today, 11:27 AM
garnabby
BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
Age: 48
Posts: 164
Re: Banned again, part 1...
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09-05-2009, 12:17 PM #8 (permalink) Audionut
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
To ANYBODY reading this in the public forum:
I have seen nothing but positive qualities/feedback an professionalism from Ellis and everyone else on the private forum. Everyone has the same goal: BEAT THE CASINO on a consistent basis. People contribute, learn, and help each other here.
Definitely worth the price of admission.
Please, there are plenty of OTHER sites to argue or bash other people. Go to one of these if that is where your interests lie.
09-05-2009, 12:14 PM #7 (permalink) Keith Smith
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
Quote:This is a terribly moderated forum.
No message board worth anything would allow this to continue. It is NOT user-friendly!I'm all for free speech, playing Devil's Advocate, etc, and giving anybody a chance, but this guy, Giselle, has had his chances. Hell, blackjackinfo.com has better, clearer, friendlier Baccarat forums than this. I say good luck to Ellis in attracting any new members to his site. He's going to need it.
Thank you and your point is noted. What I'm trying to do is show that we are not shunning differing opinions, which is something we had been accused of in the past. As a matter of fact, I welcome the differing opinions because they allow us to respectfully and confidently show that OUR SYSTEMS WORK!!
As for having better, clearer, forums: I use v-bulletin, the most popular, user friendly system out there. There are many ways you can see new posts, and subscribe/unsubscribe from the posts that interest you. You can even choose to ignore posts from certain users. If you need help investigating this, PM me.
Regards, KS
09-05-2009, 12:05 PM #6 (permalink) Sara_Emanuelle
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith Smith
No, Giselle, you're not ruining another sales campaign. Your personal grudge will not stop our members from winning. But your banter does generate interest in this thread, which points out the winning (please see initial post above) going on in our Private Forum, so I thank you for that.
I disagree. Considering the thread is titled, "The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!", not only do I believe that Giselle does nothing to enhance any interest in that topic, but that his posts are detrimental to any users that have to wade through the mountains of utter crap posted by him in order to find some words of wisdom.
Why do I have to read through post after post of "Martingale" this and "Martingale" that in order to find something on SKOR 2Hi that was suggested to me by the author himself?
I shouldn't have to.
I'm all for free speech, playing Devil's Advocate, etc, and giving anybody a chance, but this guy, Giselle, has had his chances.
I say good luck to Ellis.
09-05-2009, 10:56 AM #5 (permalink) acqueen
Re: The Private Forum is RED HOT right now!!
Giselle, I have been a Member here for a while. A silent Member. I paid my membership like most people did.. with winnings from playing the free systems. I check in occasionally (as I did this morning), as I have to download SKOR information, and then I'm out playing and making a living doing it.
But I can't help but think you are here specifically to bash something you know nothing about. I've spent the last few minutes going through your old posts, specifically these:
"1989 was the year that changed my future forever it was the year i discovered horse racing...turns out its not all it seems and making money was not easy after all so after 17 years of addiction in 2006 i did something that once again changed my life in a way that i will regret for the rest of my life.. I stole a lot of money and left my country knowing if i went back ill spend time in jail, this was an attempt to stop gambling and start a new life far away from my past life.."
And this: in 1995 i discovered casinos and it wasn't long before baccarat was the game i spent all my time playing..so 3 yrs after i took the cash and left town im still playing baccarat, why well thats easy because i have a plan and i believe it works but the problem is it only works some of the time and in the last 14 years of playing baccarat ive lost every cent ive earned to the game and that includes all my winnings too !!
I am absolutely dumbfounded that someone with your history, particularly running from an impending criminal conviction, would think that YOUR WORD, IN ANY WAY, would be enough to be "in the way of a sales pitch"...
Apparently your grudge is with Ellis Davis... perhaps you didn't play his system right in the past? You claim you are a "changed man".. or are you a woman??
"Im a changed man and when i look back on those 20 years i can see why the life has been sucked out of me to a point i feel like a worthless candidate for any hope of having a family of my own i can share my life with.."
Perhaps your grudge is with gambling in general, as you obviously lost your money, your reputation, your morals, and your freedom to return to your home, by playing BADLY. If you want to start a support group for people who pushed gambling so far to the edge THAT THEY FELL OFF, go ahead and do it. But don't come in here and bash those of us who have the ability to seek out ways to win, and the required maturity and self-control needed to become winners. It makes you sound weak and classless.
I'll bet you can't throw a baseball, or kick a football good enough to make money at it. So does that make all those who practiced their game and made it to the Big Leagues "sinister" ?? Because that's what you're trying to do to us, and really, it's getting a bit childish.
************************************************** *****
SORRY ARCHER, BUT I MUST NOW CONCLUDE THAT YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT EVEN ELLIS' SINCERITY... JUST ANOTHER CHEAP SCAM THROUGH AND THROUGH.
AND OF COURSE ELLIS AND HIS "CAMP" WERE FREELY WELCOMED TO ALL OF MY OWN WORK, AND TO THIS FORUM... BUT NOT A SINGLE REPLY.
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#12 Today, 04:18 PM
garnabby
BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
Age: 48
Posts: 164
Re: Banned again, part 1...
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This afternoon's developments with Ellis. I didn't want to re-bump this thread to the top anymore, but given the number of readers... .
I checked out BTC at work today for a few minutes, (but Ellis & co. please don't report me, ha,) to find this over there, well as my recent posts deleted. It pretty much speaks for itself, in the ways in which no one there says anything "to your face", and if so, it's only there to be soon deleted (when someone "sobers up"). Except for the "felony" part of this... does Ellis really confuse his "forum-rules" with the regular "laws of the land", or the "higher laws" of some other greater purpose? Is that why his "bunch of bananas" over there are vigilantly "on guard" at their "posts"? (I mean a person can't write much of anything of value over there w/o the "switch-board" literally lighting up one by one until Aegis finally "wakes ups" to ban its author, thereby deleting it.)
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09-08-2009, 06:39 AM #1 (permalink)
E. Clifton Davis
Professional Player | Co-Founder
Join Date: Nov 2005
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Finally, the truth about Garnabby / giselle knowles
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For those who give a hoot and I realize that is a very small number,
thanks to our private member Zebra, we now know the truth about our
constant detracter garnabby. See Zebra's very welcome post below and my
limited comments below that.
Hi Ellis, regarding Garnabby:
I just had a peek at Garnabby's forum and saw these messages posted. It
comes as no surprise that the Baccarat Kid identifies himself as "GK"
(could that be Giselle Knowles?) and he brags about wanting to do some
more damage before he gets the boot (again).
These morons will not stop. I think a quick boot at the first sign of
their BS will help put an end to their meddling. BTW, I'm certain that the
guy Gablaw and I were speaking to in Vegas was other than Garnabby. He
used many of the same phrases Garnabby used in his posts. On a more
pleasant note,
I am working out plans to join you in Tunica. I will let you know when
plans are completed.
Paul
#7 Yesterday, 07:07 AM
thebaccaratkid
BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: London
Posts: 1
Re: Banned again, part 1...
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Hi there Garnabby GK here, i was also banned last yr around xmas by the
Davis clan under this user name thebaccaratkid, archer will remember me im
sure...I even managed to get comped by davis into the members section when
i first joined but eventually the Davis dribble finally got to me and i
blew my cover !!.
Im wearing my visits under GK very thin over there but hopefully ill not
get the boot before i can do some more damage..
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#8 Yesterday, 08:33 PM
garnabby
BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
Age: 48
Posts: 159
Re: Banned again, part 1...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebaccaratkid
Hi there Garnabby GK here, i was also banned last yr around xmas by the
Davis clan under this user name thebaccaratkid, archer will remember me im
sure...I even managed to get comped by davis into the members section when
i first joined but eventually the Davis dribble finally got to me and i
blew my cover !!.
Im wearing my visits under GK very thin over there but hopefully ill not
get the boot before i can do some more damage..
thebaccaratkid,
Fooled me, i still hadn't figured who or what "GK" was up to. Also i have
been known by a couple of aliases in my brief time on some of these
boards... mostly to "test" their software; and at the other end of the
spectrum, to have a little harmless "fun".
I know Ellis, and the "gang" are big enough to deal with the latter. And
by and large the overwhelming majority of the persons, including those
involved with this sort of "monkey business" (, or "baccarat shit" as i
sometimes refer to it when it "starts to get away from me"), are honest
enough to not make up (too many) things here. But i guess the loyalty
which often goes hand in hand with that sometimes gets in the way.
I haven't heard from Archer in a while, but i'm sure he's out there still
looking for ways to better his baccarat-play. Most don't know it but he,
himself, has quite a backgroung in the game. And he actually seems (to me,
from his correspondence to myself,) to see a lot of good qualities in
Ellis' work... such as Ellis' dedication to the "art" of the game, and
firsthand knowledge of Ellis' persistence playing it.
My biggest "problem" with BTC in the past, anyway, has in my opinion and
experience been its censorship of anything threatening to their methods as
being infallible. But then of course also the "loyalty" thing going on
there once everyone is otherwise "convinced". Regardless, it looks as
though the "Ellis era" is perhaps just about over, and that Keith may be
trying to re-shape the forum to meet a more realistic club-based goal in
the future.
zebra
Ellis again: Just to set the record straight, no one has ever been
censored on BTC. Garnabby has been banned now under I think 8 different
aliases. I suspect that BK (Bacarrat Kid) is yet another alias he uses to
fool the people on his OWN site. He talks to himself under two of his
aliases. I know this because both say the exact same thing the same way
and both spell the same words wrong the same way. It's no wonder he can't
understand loyalty. That would be a completely foreign concept to him.
This whacko has only one goal, destruction. His GK admissions confirm that
he is a big time gambling loser who commits felonies to cover his losses.
For that reason he seems to go into an insanity tailspin whenever
confronted by a winner or anyone smarter than he thinks he is. I don't
know what the psychiatrists call that but I'm sure they have a name for
it. Obviously he has no winning system or he wouldn't be spending all his
time trying to demolish other sites. Anyway, enough time wasted. Good
riddance!
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Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 09-08-2009 at 06:53 AM.
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