Casino news from http://www.kentucky.com/
The coming legislative session is setting up a clash between money and morals.
The horse industry has announced its intention to seek a constitutional amendment, to go on the 2006 November ballot, to allow racetracks to run casinos.
And the churches have vowed to fight any expansion of gambling.
That the tracks want casinos is nothing new.
Neither is the opposition.
Both factions are coming off political wins.
The religious conservatives campaigned statewide for a ban on same-sex marriage and succeeded in passing a constitutional amendment.
Kent Ostrander, head of the Family Foundation, said that the churches have no money to fight casinos but that they have "right" on their side.
If they can mobilize the kind of protest that two years ago filled the halls of the state Capitol with hymn-singing angry voters, they will certainly have "might."
But in the past year and a half, the horse industry has shown unprecedented unity. Its lobbying organization, the Kentucky Equine Education Project, won passage of legislation to set up $15 million in breeders' incentives funded by the sales tax on stud fees.
Jim Navolio, executive director of KEEP, said his group has raised $5 million, hopes to have a statewide membership of 10,000 by January and has the support of key groups outside the horse industry.
But that coalition might not be as solid as it looks.
Neither the Kentucky League of Cities, nor the Kentucky Association of Counties, nor the various chambers of commerce have endorsed a specific proposal. Most of them hadn't seen any details of KEEP's plan before the Frankfort press conference on Sept. 16 to announce the campaign.
The groups all favor casinos at the racetracks and like the idea of dedicating money to local governments, education, health care and other public needs. But their support will undoubtedly come down to how much money they are promised.
An updated study by gambling industry analysts Christiansen Capital Advisers estimates that 14,000 slot machines at tracks in seven cities could produce $1.1 billion a year in revenue. KEEP has estimated the state could reap up to $450 million annually in taxes.
Those kinds of numbers turn legislators' heads -- but only if they have backing.
There has never been overwhelming voter support, but a multimillion-dollar marketing campaign could change that.
The wild card is the political uncertainty in Frankfort.
The merit system hiring investigation, the indictments of key Republican administration officials, the pardons -- and subsequent firings -- by Gov. Ernie Fletcher may have drained Fletcher's political capital.
Fletcher, who doesn't support casinos but won't block them, might not have enough clout to matter next January.
That leaves the door open for a potential gubernatorial challenger to take up the casino banner, win the support of the horse industry, and ride the issue into the governor's mansion much the same way that Gov. Wallace Wilkinson did with his promise to legalize the lottery.
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