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Richard Oliver: It can be risky business dismissing these Astros
San Antonio Express-News
Start handicapping the National League wild-card race, if you must.
Pore over the pros and cons of Central Division contenders, ranking them as you would racehorses at Retama Park.
Sweat over the team's schedule and standings off the field, its slugging and slinging on it.
Yes, go ahead and fret over the Astros again.
But understand, as always, that forecasting the franchise's fortunes has become about as reliable as counting on an aching bunion to forecast rain.
Now more than ever.
Houston heads into this week's All-Star break in the unlikely role of contender, flirting with the division lead despite maddeningly inconsistent efforts at bat and afield. Far from girding itself for a marathon comeback, the historic dynamic that drove the past two seasons, the Astros have taken advantage of the swoon of the Cardinals, last year's runaway Central king, to join the resurgent Reds and Brewers within a pop fly of the top.
The development has thrown a further twist into what has become an annual midseason guessing game regarding Houston and its hopes.
In coming days, the conjecture will include aggressive speculation regarding trade talk — will they or won't they? — and the fortitude of manager Phil Garner and staff in dealing with a lineup full of more question marks than a television weathercast.
The Astros are scuffling along against all odds, rising and falling like a springtime thermometer, thanks to impact players such as Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane often swinging the bat as if swatting at fluttering insects and a pitching staff sometimes operating on a fling and a prayer.
As a result, the rumor mill regarding the Astros already is roiling the waters. One earlier this week had one of the team's young starters and minor-league hurler Jason Hirsh being part of a package shipped to the Marlins for left-handed ace Dontrelle Willis.
Others have Chris Burke, Lane or other familiar names being moved as part of deals for David Dellucci, Carl Crawford, Andruw Jones or perennial gossip favorite Bobby Abreu. All might be available by the July 31 trading deadline.
To be sure, the pursuit of a slugger, if the Astros can hold on in coming weeks, is a real possibility, if not a necessity. The club is averaging less than five runs per game, typically when standouts Roger Clemens or Roy Oswalt are on the mound.
The Boston Globe engaged in the tittle-tattle recently when a columnist suggested that it might not be long before Clemens kicks himself for choosing the Astros over the Red Sox in the courtship for his annual comeback from retirement.
"You had to wonder," it was opined, "whether this is the way Clemens wanted to spend what may be his final summer in uniform."
The result, it was concluded, is the admittedly slim possibility that if the Astros tumble out of contention, shipping Clemens to Boston wouldn't be so far-fetched.
It sounds all too familiar, of course. Raising the possibility, if not the likelihood, of a Houston collapse and resulting fire sale has become as popular a summer pastime among national pundits as jabbing at Barry Bonds' oversized head.
Yet, as recent history has taught us, straddling the fence about Houston's chances in July can often leave critics singing like sopranos in September.
One of the endearing attributes of the Astros in recent seasons has been their tendency to blossom from wallflowers to wallbangers in the long haul from summer into fall, filling out along the way like teenagers making the evolution from bony to brawny.
The ballclub finished the 2004 season on a 36-10 tear and the 2005 schedule as baseball's hottest team after June 1.
This season, a grind-it-out affair again, has a similar feel to it.
The Astros' record today is similar to where the club stood at the same point during last summer's march to the National League championship. But this time around, Houston is showing unexpected muscle in the standings even as it shows familiar inconsistency on the diamond.
The temptation is again to dismiss the club as more tenacious than talented, finally due for something south of an improbable run at glory.
Indeed, the temptation is to straddle the fence. But recent history offers a valuable lesson in that regard.
Wear a cup.
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