The Theory of Blackjack’s Basic Strategy

For most of its history as a casino card game, the casino owners knew they had an edge at Blackjack, but didn’t really understand why. The bottom line showed they made a profit, which was all that mattered. Today we know the game is profitable primarily because of player mistakes. Play the game incorrectly and you’ll lose; it’s as simple as that. I don’t mean to ignore the fact that the casino’s rules also give them an edge – the number of decks used, whether or not the dealer hits soft 17 and so forth – but back in the good ol’ days of single-deck Blackjack, the rules were very liberal and that gave players who used the proper playing strategy an even-money shot at winning. But few players knew what that strategy was, so the casinos kept winning.


The situation today is that a player cannot get to break-even at the game, other than by counting the cards or some other “advantage player” technique, unless the casino offers very liberal rules, which few do. However, today’s player can reduce the casino’s edge to the bare minimum by following the proper Basic Strategy for that particular game. If you eliminate the mistakes, then it’s only the casino’s rules give them an edge over you. And if you can find a game with pretty good rules, the possibility of winning is greatly enhanced, as long as you play each and every hand properly.


What’s a “minimum” edge? If you play Blackjack on the Internet, there is no reason to play a game where the casino has a bigger edge of much more than 0.40% or so. What this means is that you can expect to lose 0.40% of all the money you bet at the game. For example, if you were to play 1000 hands of Blackjack and bet $5 on each hand, your bets will total $5000. If the casino’s edge is 0.40%, your mathematical expectation is to lose $20. In reality, you might win $180 (or more), or you might lose $200 or more. It’s only after many thousands of hands that you can expect your results to be very close to the mathematical expectation.


Only by following the proper Basic Strategy for the game you’re playing is this possible. The proper Basic Strategy is determined by the rules of the game; the strategy for a single-deck game is different than the strategy for a six-deck game; a game where surrender is allowed has a different strategy than a game that doesn’t allow surrender. So, it naturally follows that you must first determine the rules of the game you’re playing, and then obtain the proper Basic Strategy for that game. But even more importantly, you must use that strategy when you play each hand: no hunches, no guessing, no superstition.


Basic Strategy really works because it uses the mathematics of any given hand to tell you what the “percentage play” is. You won’t win every hand, but at least you’ll know you made the correct play. And that’s as good as it gets.


The GameMaster
as posted on www.gamblingonlinemagazine.com